February 16, 2011
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AppleWatch: A New Series
I’ve recently become obsessed with the Apple stock (AAPL) of late. {Primarily because I hold long positions on the stock.} So I’ve decided to start capturing a few things in this new series of blog posts dedicated to Apple.
- Current Stock Price
- Links to Analyst Reports
- Statistics on Unit Sales By Quarter/Year
- Estimates and Predictions from Apple/Analysts
- Competitors / Industry Trends
- Personal Outlook
Here’s a link to Apple’s fiscal 2011 First Quarter results. ( http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2011/01/18results.html )
Stock Price:
- 02/16/11 Close: $363.14
Revenue/Profit/Margin:
- $26.74B / $6B / 38.5% 2011 compared to $15.68B / $3.38B / 40.9% 2010
- 62% of Q1 Revenue from international sales
- These numbers are mind-blowing. Year over year growth, profitability, and margin numbers are beautiful. Apple the World is your Oyster!!!
Unit Sales:
- 4.13M Macs Q1/2011 23% YoY Increase
- 16.24M iPhones Q1/2011 86% YoY Increase
- 19.45M iPods Q1/2011 7% YoY Decrease
- 7.33M iPads Q1/2011
I think these historical Q1 numbers are meaningful in two ways. It helps me understand some of the Analyst predictions for 2011. It helps set the context for how the competitors are doing in the laptop, smartphone, and tablet computing categories. The latest fiasco is the news for Nokia (NOK) choosing Microsoft (MSFT) Windows Mobile as their operating system of choice. This marriage of giants will have a long incubation cycle. Nokia has the most to lose in this relationship. Microsoft finally gets an ally in the hardware/handset market for a questionable mobile platform.
Outlook:
- Bullish
- I’m expecting AAPL to break the $365 barrier next week and push in to the $370′s by mid-March. I certainly didn’t feel that way last Thursday 02/10/2011 when the intra-day low was at $348. The general stock market has been really good to investors in the last 6 months – maybe longer. Everything seems up and positive.
A special thank you to Damon for sending me tons of information on the Apple topic. I’m not able to able to consume or action it at times, but it’s provocative reading when I finally get around to it.
It’s funny to see that the same hesitation and doubt I had in March of 2009 has not really disappeared almost 2 years later. The AAPL stock on March 18, 2009 crossed the $100 threshold and I questioned its ability to move past that floor/ceiling. I was wrong then. I don’t plan on letting that continue.
