December 30, 2011

• The Glass and the last of 2011′s AppleWatch…

  The glass is neither half-full nor half-empty… it overflows. 

  2011 was a great year.  I accomplished more than I imagined, it’s easy to want more.  So my goals for 2012 will be less materialistic than in previous years and more focused on volunteering if anything. 

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  Here’s the latest analyst’s article on Apple forwarded to my by Mr. Damon:

  Apple: BMO Ups Target to $460 on Higher iPhone Sales

  By Tiernan Ray

  BMO Capital’s Keith Bachman late yesterday raised his price target on Apple (AAPL) shares by five bucks to $460 after raising his estimates for Apple’s iPhone sales based on what appears to be strong uptake at Sprint-Nextel (S) and Japan’s KDDI. 

  Bachman now sees perhaps 29.5 million iPhone units, up from his prior 28-million estimate, with potential for as many as 32 million, writing “based on our conversations with Sprint sales reps, we believe that Apple is benefiting from material upgrades of Sprint subscribers.”

  I’d note that numerous analysts have been raising their iPhone estimates for the last couple of months, and 30 million appears to be the average estimate of late. 

  Bachman raised his EPS estimate for this quarter ending in December, Apple’s fiscal Q1, to $9.82 from $9.55 a share, and raised his estimate for the full fiscal year from $33.50 to $34.68. Bachman also raised his full-year fiscal 2013 estimate to $39.62 from $38.80. 

  Current consensus is $9.83 a share this quarter and $34.79 for the full year. Bachman’s $7.59 estimate for next quarter, he notes, is below the $7.86 average estimate, he notes, which he writes is because he’s expecting somewhat software iPad sales in the March quarter in advance of the introduction of a new iPad model. 

  Apple shares today are up $1.26 at $403.90.

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  My AppleWatch commentary…

  What’s amazing to me is that the iPhone 4S is available at 3 price points:  $199, $299, $399 for the 16GB, 32GB, and 64GB configurations.  At 30 million units sold in 2011 for the iPhone, this generally means that Apple is making anywhere from $6 billion, $9 billion, or $12 billion USD on just one product!  Mind-bogglingly amazing!  It was interesting to note that the iPhone 3GS and the iPhone 4 are still available for sale.  I’m sad that I had committed to keeping my 2 year old 3GS for another year, only to have the power button break off on the 23rd of December.  Now I guess, I’ll have to upgrade my phone to the 4S and get used to iOS 5 and Siri. What a tough migration…

  Other errata: 

  My brother and I bought my parents an iPad 2 for Christmas.  I’ve been spending a lot of time on Facetime with them as a result.  Apple has created a novelty around communication with Facetime, and really have gotten the world talking once again.  It’s interesting to note that you can’t really multi-task when you Facetime with someone, you really have to pay attention!  

  Just after Christmas, my cousin purchased his first Apple device an iPad 2 after sitting on the fence for many years.  I would have sworn he would by an Android device, since both he and his wife have Android phones.  But I now realize that Apple has created an amazing multi-purpose device that makes people part with their hard earned cash incredibly easily because of the ease-of-use factor. The device is so easy to use that people from ages 7 to 70 can use it.  I don’t think my cousin purchased the iPad 2 for easy browsing, superior social networking, convenient email communication, or great video conferencing.  I’m convinced it’s to play $.99 games like the addicting and adrenalin creating Zombie Gunship. Forget the $600 pricetag.  I’m sure he’ll discover that the experience Apple has created on the tablet will influence his future purchases on a mobile handset, possibly his next laptop or PC, and one-fine-day his next TV (if all the rumors come to fruition).  I know it has for me.  My recommendation: buy more AAPL (even at $405.40) !

   

  • 1:59 PM
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